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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

North Dakota, United States

Northern lights in Bismarck

Answer

Bismarck's OVATION cell reads 0% for 13:20 UTC. Civil darkness has begun. OVATION is a model of the next 30 to 90 minutes, not a sighting.
0%
OVATION cell 47°N, 101°W
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast, observed 11:49 UTC

Tonight

Darkness window open

Civil darkness has begun.

OVATION cell
0%
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast
Cell 47°N, 101°W
Observed 11:49 UTC, forecast 13:20 UTC, 91 min lead
Darkness
Dark now
Civil dusk 19:52, civil dawn 07:13
SunCalc at 46.8083, -100.7837
Clock times in America/Chicago
Cloud
81%
cloudy; NWS period containing the retrieval time
NWS BIS grid 110,47
Valid 12:00 to 13:00 UTC
CivilNauticalAstronomicalMoon up while dark10 PM to 2 AM

Storm level needed

Bismarck sits at 46.81N 100.78W in North Dakota, United States. The IGRF-14 centered dipole puts Bismarck at 54.7 degrees geomagnetic latitude, 7.9 degrees closer to the magnetic pole than its map latitude suggests. Bismarck sits at 54.7 degrees geomagnetic. The lowest NOAA storm level whose typical viewing latitude reaches it is G3 (Kp = 7). By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead only at Kp 6.

"aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)"

NOAA SWPC, G3 Strong, Kp = 7

The nearest other Glow towns are Jamestown (158 km), Minot (163 km), Williston (260 km). Jamestown sits 0.3 degrees higher on the dipole and needs the same Kp.

Approximate: SWPC calls its Kp to latitude rule an average, and a centered dipole can differ by a degree from fuller field models. How the storm level is matched

The year in darkness

Civil twilightNautical twilightAstronomical nightMoon up in darkness10 PM to 2 AM, SWPC best windowToday

Every night of 2026 at Bismarck has some civil darkness; the shortest month sample still has 6.7 hours. Every evening of the year at Bismarck clears Glow's dark-season bar of 4 hours of civil night between 18:00 and 06:00. Bismarck's longest night of the year, Dec 16, has 14 h 11 min of civil night.

Solar midnight at Bismarck, when the sun is lowest, falls at 00:38 on local clocks on December 15 and 01:43 on June 15. That is 38 min after midnight in December and 1 h 43 min after midnight in June, the gap set by daylight saving and the equation of time. So at Bismarck the darkest hour sits near the middle of SWPC's 10 PM to 2 AM window in winter.

Month by month

Civil night on the 15th, mean cloud amount, and civil night times the clear share (the best month is marked)
MonthNightCivilCloudClear dark
Jan13.8 h65%4.8 h
Feb12.5 h64%4.5 h
Mar11.0 h67%3.6 h
Apr9.2 h61%3.6 h
May7.6 h60%3.0 h
Jun6.7 h53%3.1 h
Jul7.2 h44%4.0 h
Aug8.6 h44%4.8 h
Sep10.3 h47%5.5 hbest
Oct12.0 h59%4.9 h
Nov13.4 h63%5.0 h
Dec14.2 h69%4.4 h

By the 15th-of-the-month sample, December is the darkest month at Bismarck with 14.2 hours of civil night and June the lightest at 6.7. Across the year Bismarck gets 3,845 hours of civil night. Astronomical night at Bismarck, the sun 18 degrees or more below the horizon, lasts 11.7 hours on December 15.

NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology puts mean cloud amount for the 1 degree cell around Bismarck at 58% across the year, from 44% in July to 69% in December. In the months with at least 4 hours of civil night Bismarck averages 58%, against a median of 61% for Glow towns in United States.

Multiplying civil night by the clear share of the sky gives September the best score, 5.5 hours, ahead of November at 5.0. Bismarck's equinox months score 3.6 in March and 5.5 in September, the weeks SWPC links with larger storms.

Kp history

From 1996 to 2025, the GFZ Potsdam record shows a 3-hour Kp of 6 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge over Bismarck, on 3% of days. At Bismarck's level the share runs from 1% in December to 5% in October, while storm days with Kp 5 or more made up 10%.

Share of UTC days in each calendar month whose highest 3-hour Kp reached Kp 6. Kp history by year

Moon, next 30 nights

Over the 30 nights from Oct 1, the new moon falls on Oct 10 and the full moon on Oct 25, in America/Chicago dates. 15 of the 30 nights at Bismarck have at least 2 moon-free dark hours inside 10 PM to 2 AM, and Oct 5 has the most at 4 h. Tonight Bismarck has 11 h 15 min of civil night, 2 h 6 min of it with the moon down.

  1. 1

    65% lit

    2.1 h

  2. 2

    54% lit

    3.2 h

  3. 3

    43% lit

    4.5 h

  4. 4

    32% lit

    5.9 h

  5. 5

    22% lit

    7.3 h

  6. 6

    13% lit

    8.6 h

  7. 7

    7% lit

    9.9 h

  8. 8

    2% lit

    11.2 h

  9. 9

    0% lit

    11.7 h

  10. 10

    0% lit

    11.7 h

  11. 11

    3% lit

    11.8 h

  12. 12

    7% lit

    11.8 h

  13. 13

    13% lit

    11.5 h

  14. 14

    20% lit

    10.9 h

  15. 15

    28% lit

    10.2 h

  16. 16

    36% lit

    9.2 h

  17. 17

    46% lit

    8.2 h

  18. 18

    55% lit

    7.1 h

  19. 19

    65% lit

    6.0 h

  20. 20

    74% lit

    4.8 h

  21. 21

    82% lit

    3.7 h

  22. 22

    89% lit

    2.5 h

  23. 23

    95% lit

    1.3 h

  24. 24

    99% lit

    0.0 h

  25. 25

    100% lit

    0.0 h

  26. 26

    98% lit

    0.0 h

  27. 27

    94% lit

    0.0 h

  28. 28

    87% lit

    0.8 h

  29. 29

    79% lit

    1.9 h

  30. 30

    68% lit

    3.1 h

Each cell is the night that starts on that date. Hours are civil-dark time with the moon below the horizon; the green rule scales with them. Green outline: new moon. Bone outline: full moon.

Within United States

Among the 6 Glow towns in North Dakota, Bismarck ranks 6th by dipole latitude against a regional median of 55.5 degrees; Grand Forks sits highest at 56.1. Among the 136 Glow towns in United States, Bismarck ranks 13th by dipole latitude against a national median of 51.5 degrees; Fairbanks sits highest at 65.7. On December 15 Bismarck gets 14.2 hours of civil night, 15th longest of 136 in United States, where the median is 13.8.

Questions

Can you see the northern lights in Bismarck?
Bismarck sits at 54.7 degrees geomagnetic. The lowest NOAA storm level whose typical viewing latitude reaches it is G3 (Kp = 7). By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead only at Kp 6. Clear, dark sky over Bismarck still decides it.
When is it dark enough in Bismarck?
Every night at Bismarck has civil darkness. Tonight has 11 h 15 min, and December 15 has 14.2 hours.
What is the best month for aurora in Bismarck?
September, by civil night at Bismarck times the clear share of the sky from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 average.
How cloudy is Bismarck in the dark months?
About 58% mean cloud amount over Bismarck in the months with at least 4 hours of civil night, from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology.
How often is activity high enough for Bismarck?
A 3-hour Kp of 6 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge overhead, occurred on 3% of days from 1996 to 2025 in the GFZ Potsdam record.