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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia

Northern lights in Tosno

Answer

Tosno's OVATION cell reads 0% for 13:20 UTC. It is not civil-dark yet. The next dusk is listed below. OVATION is a model of the next 30 to 90 minutes, not a sighting.
0%
OVATION cell 60°N, 31°E
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast, observed 11:49 UTC

Tonight

Waiting on darkness

It is not civil-dark yet. The next dusk is listed below.

OVATION cell
0%
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast
Cell 60°N, 31°E
Observed 11:49 UTC, forecast 13:20 UTC, 91 min lead
Darkness
Not dark yet
Civil dusk 19:07, civil dawn 06:25
SunCalc at 59.5400, 30.8775
Clock times in Europe/Moscow
Cloud
n/a
Not used (outside the US): NWS covers US coordinates only, and Glow uses no substitute feed.
api.weather.gov gridpoints
CivilNauticalAstronomicalMoon up while dark10 PM to 2 AM

Storm level needed

Tosno sits at 59.54N 30.88E in Leningradskaya Oblast', Russia. The IGRF-14 centered dipole puts Tosno at 56.3 degrees geomagnetic latitude, 3.3 degrees farther from the magnetic pole than its map latitude suggests. Tosno sits at 56.3 degrees geomagnetic. By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead at Kp 5, and aurora is usually visible on the northern horizon at G1 (Kp 5) or less.

"aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)"

NOAA SWPC, G1 Minor, Kp = 5

The nearest other Glow towns are Kolpino (29 km), Kommunar (29 km), Kirovsk, Leningradskaya Oblast' (38 km). Kolpino sits 0.2 degrees higher on the dipole and needs the same Kp.

Approximate: SWPC calls its Kp to latitude rule an average, and a centered dipole can differ by a degree from fuller field models. How the storm level is matched

The year in darkness

Civil twilightNautical twilightAstronomical nightMoon up in darkness10 PM to 2 AM, SWPC best windowToday

Every night of 2026 at Tosno has some civil darkness; the shortest month sample still has 1.7 hours. Glow's dark season, at least 4 hours of civil night between 18:00 and 06:00, runs from July 22 to May 20 across New Year, 303 days in 2026. Tosno's longest night of the year, Dec 18, has 15 h 57 min of civil night.

Solar midnight at Tosno, when the sun is lowest, falls at 00:52 on local clocks on December 15 and 00:57 on June 15. That is 52 min after midnight in December and 57 min after midnight in June, the gap set by daylight saving and the equation of time. So at Tosno the darkest hour sits late in SWPC's 10 PM to 2 AM window.

Month by month

Civil night on the 15th, mean cloud amount, and civil night times the clear share (the best month is marked)
MonthNightCivilCloudClear dark
Jan15.3 h84%2.4 h
Feb13.1 h81%2.5 h
Mar10.7 h71%3.1 hbest
Apr7.8 h66%2.7 h
May4.6 h63%1.7 h
Jun1.7 h67%0.6 h
Jul3.4 h65%1.2 h
Aug6.6 h64%2.4 h
Sep9.6 h70%2.9 h
Oct12.3 h80%2.5 h
Nov14.7 h87%1.9 h
Dec15.9 h88%1.9 h

By the 15th-of-the-month sample, December is the darkest month at Tosno with 15.9 hours of civil night and June the lightest at 1.7. Across the year Tosno gets 3,513 hours of civil night. Astronomical night at Tosno, the sun 18 degrees or more below the horizon, lasts 12.4 hours on December 15.

NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology puts mean cloud amount for the 1 degree cell around Tosno at 74% across the year, from 63% in May to 88% in December. In the months with at least 4 hours of civil night Tosno averages 75%, against a median of 77% for Glow towns in Russia.

Multiplying civil night by the clear share of the sky gives March the best score, 3.1 hours, ahead of September at 2.9. Tosno's equinox months score 3.1 in March and 2.9 in September, the weeks SWPC links with larger storms.

Kp history

From 1996 to 2025, the GFZ Potsdam record shows a 3-hour Kp of 5 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge over Tosno, on 10% of days. At Tosno's level the share runs from 5% in December to 14% in September, while storm days with Kp 5 or more made up 10%.

Share of UTC days in each calendar month whose highest 3-hour Kp reached Kp 5. Kp history by year

Moon, next 30 nights

Over the 30 nights from Oct 2, the new moon falls on Oct 10 and the full moon on Oct 26, in Europe/Moscow dates. 15 of the 30 nights at Tosno have at least 2 moon-free dark hours inside 10 PM to 2 AM, and Oct 6 has the most at 4 h. Tonight Tosno has 11 h 10 min of civil night, 44 min of it with the moon down.

  1. 2

    58% lit

    0.7 h

  2. 3

    47% lit

    2.2 h

  3. 4

    35% lit

    4.0 h

  4. 5

    25% lit

    5.8 h

  5. 6

    16% lit

    7.5 h

  6. 7

    9% lit

    9.2 h

  7. 8

    4% lit

    10.8 h

  8. 9

    1% lit

    11.8 h

  9. 10

    0% lit

    11.8 h

  10. 11

    2% lit

    11.9 h

  11. 12

    5% lit

    12.0 h

  12. 13

    10% lit

    12.1 h

  13. 14

    17% lit

    12.2 h

  14. 15

    25% lit

    12.3 h

  15. 16

    33% lit

    11.9 h

  16. 17

    43% lit

    10.6 h

  17. 18

    52% lit

    9.2 h

  18. 19

    62% lit

    7.7 h

  19. 20

    71% lit

    6.2 h

  20. 21

    79% lit

    4.8 h

  21. 22

    87% lit

    3.3 h

  22. 23

    93% lit

    1.8 h

  23. 24

    98% lit

    0.3 h

  24. 25

    100% lit

    0.0 h

  25. 26

    99% lit

    0.0 h

  26. 27

    96% lit

    0.0 h

  27. 28

    90% lit

    0.0 h

  28. 29

    82% lit

    0.0 h

  29. 30

    72% lit

    1.2 h

  30. 31

    61% lit

    3.0 h

Each cell is the night that starts on that date. Hours are civil-dark time with the moon below the horizon; the green rule scales with them. Green outline: new moon. Bone outline: full moon.

Within Russia

Among the 19 Glow towns in Leningradskaya Oblast', Tosno ranks 13th by dipole latitude against a regional median of 56.4 degrees; Priozërsk sits highest at 57.8. Among the 77 Glow towns in Russia, Tosno ranks 59th by dipole latitude against a national median of 57.3 degrees; Nikel sits highest at 65.7. On December 15 Tosno gets 15.9 hours of civil night, 66th longest of 77 in Russia, where the median is 16.7.

Questions

Can you see the northern lights in Tosno?
Tosno sits at 56.3 degrees geomagnetic. By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead at Kp 5, and aurora is usually visible on the northern horizon at G1 (Kp 5) or less. Clear, dark sky over Tosno still decides it.
When is it dark enough in Tosno?
Every night at Tosno has civil darkness. Tonight has 11 h 10 min, and December 15 has 15.9 hours.
What is the best month for aurora in Tosno?
March, by civil night at Tosno times the clear share of the sky from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 average.
How cloudy is Tosno in the dark months?
About 75% mean cloud amount over Tosno in the months with at least 4 hours of civil night, from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology.
How often is activity high enough for Tosno?
A 3-hour Kp of 5 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge overhead, occurred on 10% of days from 1996 to 2025 in the GFZ Potsdam record.