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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

Victoria, Australia

Southern lights in Warrnambool

Answer

Warrnambool's OVATION cell reads 0% for 13:26 UTC. Civil darkness has begun. OVATION is a model of the next 30 to 90 minutes, not a sighting.
0%
OVATION cell 38°S, 142°E
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast, observed 11:55 UTC

Tonight

Darkness window open

Civil darkness has begun.

OVATION cell
0%
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast
Cell 38°S, 142°E
Observed 11:55 UTC, forecast 13:26 UTC, 91 min lead
Darkness
Dark now
Civil dusk 19:01, civil dawn 05:36
SunCalc at -38.3818, 142.4880
Clock times in Australia/Melbourne
Cloud
n/a
Not used (outside the US): NWS covers US coordinates only, and Glow uses no substitute feed.
api.weather.gov gridpoints
CivilNauticalAstronomicalMoon up while dark10 PM to 2 AM

Storm level needed

Warrnambool sits at 38.38S 142.49E in Victoria, Australia. The IGRF-14 centered dipole puts Warrnambool at 45.7 degrees geomagnetic latitude, 7.3 degrees closer to the magnetic pole than its map latitude suggests. Warrnambool sits at 45.7 degrees geomagnetic. The lowest NOAA storm level whose typical viewing latitude reaches it is G4 (Kp = 8, including a 9-). Even Kp 9 does not put the average oval edge overhead by SWPC's rule.

"aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)"

NOAA SWPC, G4 Severe, Kp = 8, including a 9-

The nearest other Glow towns are Hamilton, Victoria (82 km), Colac (96 km), Torquay (160 km). Hamilton, Victoria sits 0.6 degrees lower on the dipole and needs the same Kp.

Approximate: SWPC calls its Kp to latitude rule an average, and a centered dipole can differ by a degree from fuller field models. How the storm level is matched

The year in darkness

Civil twilightNautical twilightAstronomical nightMoon up in darkness10 PM to 2 AM, SWPC best windowToday

Every night of 2026 at Warrnambool has some civil darkness; the shortest month sample still has 8.0 hours. Every evening of the year at Warrnambool clears Glow's dark-season bar of 4 hours of civil night between 18:00 and 06:00. Warrnambool's longest night of the year, Jun 16, has 13 h 26 min of civil night.

Solar midnight at Warrnambool, when the sun is lowest, falls at 01:25 on local clocks on December 15 and 00:30 on June 15. That is 1 h 25 min after midnight in December and 30 min after midnight in June, the gap set by daylight saving and the equation of time. So at Warrnambool the darkest hour sits late in SWPC's 10 PM to 2 AM window.

Month by month

Civil night on the 15th, mean cloud amount, and civil night times the clear share (the best month is marked)
MonthNightCivilCloudClear dark
Jan8.3 h55%3.8 h
Feb9.5 h58%4.0 h
Mar10.7 h58%4.5 h
Apr11.9 h61%4.6 h
May12.9 h64%4.6 h
Jun13.4 h65%4.7 hbest
Jul13.2 h65%4.6 h
Aug12.4 h65%4.3 h
Sep11.2 h64%4.0 h
Oct9.9 h63%3.7 h
Nov8.7 h65%3.0 h
Dec8.0 h59%3.3 h

By the 15th-of-the-month sample, June is the darkest month at Warrnambool with 13.4 hours of civil night and December the lightest at 8.0. Across the year Warrnambool gets 3,962 hours of civil night. Astronomical night at Warrnambool, the sun 18 degrees or more below the horizon, lasts 5.2 hours on December 15.

NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology puts mean cloud amount for the 1 degree cell around Warrnambool at 62% across the year, from 55% in January to 65% in June. In the months with at least 4 hours of civil night Warrnambool averages 62%, against a median of 60% for Glow towns in Australia.

Multiplying civil night by the clear share of the sky gives June the best score, 4.7 hours, ahead of May at 4.6. Warrnambool's equinox months score 4.5 in March and 4.0 in September, the weeks SWPC links with larger storms.

Kp history

No whole Kp value puts the average oval edge over Warrnambool by SWPC's rule, so the GFZ record has no threshold to count. SWPC's G4 row gives the typical latitude where aurora has been seen.

Share of UTC days in each calendar month whose highest 3-hour Kp reached the level. Kp history by year

Moon, next 30 nights

Over the 30 nights from Oct 2, the new moon falls on Oct 11 and the full moon on Oct 26, in Australia/Melbourne dates. 16 of the 30 nights at Warrnambool have at least 2 moon-free dark hours inside 10 PM to 2 AM, and Oct 4 has the most at 4 h. Tonight Warrnambool has 10 h 29 min of civil night, 6 h 11 min of it with the moon down.

  1. 2

    61% lit

    6.2 h

  2. 3

    50% lit

    7.1 h

  3. 4

    39% lit

    7.8 h

  4. 5

    28% lit

    8.4 h

  5. 6

    19% lit

    8.9 h

  6. 7

    11% lit

    9.4 h

  7. 8

    5% lit

    9.8 h

  8. 9

    1% lit

    10.1 h

  9. 10

    0% lit

    10.2 h

  10. 11

    1% lit

    9.9 h

  11. 12

    4% lit

    8.8 h

  12. 13

    9% lit

    7.7 h

  13. 14

    15% lit

    6.6 h

  14. 15

    22% lit

    5.6 h

  15. 16

    31% lit

    4.7 h

  16. 17

    39% lit

    4.0 h

  17. 18

    49% lit

    3.3 h

  18. 19

    58% lit

    2.7 h

  19. 20

    68% lit

    2.3 h

  20. 21

    77% lit

    1.8 h

  21. 22

    85% lit

    1.4 h

  22. 23

    91% lit

    0.9 h

  23. 24

    96% lit

    0.5 h

  24. 25

    99% lit

    0.0 h

  25. 26

    100% lit

    0.0 h

  26. 27

    97% lit

    1.1 h

  27. 28

    92% lit

    2.4 h

  28. 29

    85% lit

    3.5 h

  29. 30

    75% lit

    4.5 h

  30. 31

    65% lit

    5.3 h

Each cell is the night that starts on that date. Hours are civil-dark time with the moon below the horizon; the green rule scales with them. Green outline: new moon. Bone outline: full moon.

Within Australia

Among the 9 Glow towns in Victoria, Warrnambool ranks 1st by dipole latitude against a regional median of 45.2 degrees, the highest of them. Among the 14 Glow towns in Australia, Warrnambool ranks 5th by dipole latitude against a national median of 45.4 degrees; Hobart sits highest at 49.6. On December 15 Warrnambool gets 8.0 hours of civil night, 7th longest of 14 in Australia, where the median is 8.0.

Questions

Can you see the southern lights in Warrnambool?
Warrnambool sits at 45.7 degrees geomagnetic. The lowest NOAA storm level whose typical viewing latitude reaches it is G4 (Kp = 8, including a 9-). Even Kp 9 does not put the average oval edge overhead by SWPC's rule. Clear, dark sky over Warrnambool still decides it.
When is it dark enough in Warrnambool?
Every night at Warrnambool has civil darkness. Tonight has 10 h 29 min, and December 15 has 8.0 hours.
What is the best month for aurora in Warrnambool?
June, by civil night at Warrnambool times the clear share of the sky from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 average.
How cloudy is Warrnambool in the dark months?
About 62% mean cloud amount over Warrnambool in the months with at least 4 hours of civil night, from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology.