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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

ToolComputedCited

Which nights this month are best, ignoring solar activity?

Answer

The best night in the next 30 at Härnösand starts Fri Oct 16, with 4 h dark and moon-free inside 22:00 to 02:00. 13 of the 30 nights keep that whole window dark and moon-free.
Fri Oct 16
best night at Härnösand, 4 h in window
SunCalc sun and moon altitude, 5 minute samples
Härnösand: 62.63°N 17.94°E, Europe/Stockholm

The best night in the next 30 at Härnösand starts Fri Oct 16, with 4 h dark and moon-free inside 22:00 to 02:00. 13 of the 30 nights keep that whole window dark and moon-free.

Oct 2Oct 7Oct 12Oct 17Oct 22Oct 27
Green: moon-free dark minutes inside 22:00 to 02:00 (full height is 5 h). Pale bar: all civil-dark minutes in that window.

This ranking covers darkness and the moon only. Solar activity cannot be forecast this far ahead: OVATION looks 30 to 90 minutes out. Check the live tools on the night.

Next 30 nights, ranked
#Night ofMoon-free in window
1Fri Oct 164 h
2Thu Oct 154 h
3Wed Oct 144 h
4Tue Oct 134 h
5Mon Oct 124 h
6Sun Oct 114 h
7Sat Oct 104 h
8Sat Oct 174 h
9Fri Oct 94 h
10Thu Oct 84 h
11Sun Oct 184 h
12Wed Oct 74 h
13Tue Oct 64 h
14Mon Oct 193 h 12 min
15Mon Oct 52 h 26 min
16Tue Oct 201 h 32 min
17Sun Oct 427 min
18Wed Oct 210 min
19Thu Oct 220 min
20Sat Oct 310 min
21Fri Oct 230 min
22Sat Oct 30 min
23Fri Oct 300 min
24Sat Oct 240 min
25Fri Oct 20 min
26Sun Oct 250 min
27Mon Oct 260 min
28Tue Oct 270 min
29Wed Oct 280 min
30Thu Oct 290 min

Worked example

Tromsø over the same 30 nights: the top three are Mon Oct 19 (4 h), Sun Oct 18 (4 h), Sat Oct 17 (4 h). The minutes are civil night with the moon below the horizon between 22:00 and 02:00 Europe/Oslo time.

Ties are common when several nights keep the whole 4 hour window dark and moonless. Glow breaks them on total moon-free dark minutes across the night, then on date.

The ranking formula

Each night starts at local noon on its date. Glow samples the sun and moon every 5 minutes and counts the minutes between 22:00 and 02:00 local time when the sun is at or below -6 degrees and the moon's center is below the horizon. That count is the score, from 0 to 240.

The window comes from SWPC's viewing tips, which place the best aurora within an hour or two of midnight. Glow uses the window exactly as published, in local clock time.

When two nights tie, the one with more moon-free civil night across the whole night ranks higher. A remaining tie goes to the earlier date.

Why solar activity is not in the ranking

The aurora depends on the solar wind reaching Earth. SWPC's OVATION product forecasts 30 to 90 minutes ahead, the time the solar wind takes to travel from the L1 monitoring point to Earth. A 30 night ranking cannot include a number that does not exist yet.

So the ranking answers a narrower question: on which nights will the sky be darkest during the hours SWPC recommends, if the aurora shows? That part is known weeks ahead.

Using the ranking

Book or plan around the top of the list, then watch the live tools as the night comes. The chance tool reads your OVATION cell and US cloud, and the southern edge tool shows how far the oval reaches.

In summer at high latitudes the list can be all zeros, because the 22:00 to 02:00 window never gets civil-dark. The verdict says so rather than ranking empty nights.

Questions

What are the best nights to see the northern lights this month?
The nights with the most dark, moon-free time inside 10 PM to 2 AM local. The table ranks the next 30 for your location. Activity itself cannot be known that far ahead.
Why do so many nights score 4 hours?
Around the new moon, and whenever the moon is below the horizon all evening, the whole window is dark and moonless. Those nights tie on the score and are ordered by total moon-free dark time.
Why is every night zero in June?
At high latitudes the sun stays above -6 degrees through the window, so no minutes count. The tool reports that instead of ranking empty nights.
Is weather included?
No. Glow reads cloud from the NWS gridpoint forecast, which does not span 30 nights. For US points, the cloud tool covers tonight.
Can I rank more than 30 nights?
The moon planner shows any month as a calendar with the same moon-free hours for each night.