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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

ToolComputedCited

Which nights this month are best, ignoring solar activity?

Answer

The best night in the next 30 at Longyearbyen starts Tue Oct 20, with 4 h dark and moon-free inside 22:00 to 02:00. 14 of the 30 nights keep that whole window dark and moon-free.
Tue Oct 20
best night at Longyearbyen, 4 h in window
SunCalc sun and moon altitude, 5 minute samples
Longyearbyen: 78.22°N 15.65°E, Arctic/Longyearbyen

The best night in the next 30 at Longyearbyen starts Tue Oct 20, with 4 h dark and moon-free inside 22:00 to 02:00. 14 of the 30 nights keep that whole window dark and moon-free.

Oct 2Oct 7Oct 12Oct 17Oct 22Oct 27
Green: moon-free dark minutes inside 22:00 to 02:00 (full height is 5 h). Pale bar: all civil-dark minutes in that window.

This ranking covers darkness and the moon only. Solar activity cannot be forecast this far ahead: OVATION looks 30 to 90 minutes out. Check the live tools on the night.

Next 30 nights, ranked
#Night ofMoon-free in window
1Tue Oct 204 h
2Mon Oct 194 h
3Sun Oct 184 h
4Sat Oct 174 h
5Fri Oct 164 h
6Thu Oct 154 h
7Wed Oct 144 h
8Tue Oct 134 h
9Mon Oct 124 h
10Sun Oct 114 h
11Sat Oct 104 h
12Fri Oct 94 h
13Thu Oct 84 h
14Wed Oct 74 h
15Wed Oct 212 h 17 min
16Thu Oct 220 min
17Fri Oct 230 min
18Fri Oct 20 min
19Sat Oct 30 min
20Sun Oct 40 min
21Mon Oct 50 min
22Tue Oct 60 min
23Sat Oct 240 min
24Sun Oct 250 min
25Mon Oct 260 min
26Tue Oct 270 min
27Wed Oct 280 min
28Thu Oct 290 min
29Fri Oct 300 min
30Sat Oct 310 min

Worked example

Tromsø over the same 30 nights: the top three are Mon Oct 19 (4 h), Sun Oct 18 (4 h), Sat Oct 17 (4 h). The minutes are civil night with the moon below the horizon between 22:00 and 02:00 Europe/Oslo time.

Ties are common when several nights keep the whole 4 hour window dark and moonless. Glow breaks them on total moon-free dark minutes across the night, then on date.

The ranking formula

Each night starts at local noon on its date. Glow samples the sun and moon every 5 minutes and counts the minutes between 22:00 and 02:00 local time when the sun is at or below -6 degrees and the moon's center is below the horizon. That count is the score, from 0 to 240.

The window comes from SWPC's viewing tips, which place the best aurora within an hour or two of midnight. Glow uses the window exactly as published, in local clock time.

When two nights tie, the one with more moon-free civil night across the whole night ranks higher. A remaining tie goes to the earlier date.

Why solar activity is not in the ranking

The aurora depends on the solar wind reaching Earth. SWPC's OVATION product forecasts 30 to 90 minutes ahead, the time the solar wind takes to travel from the L1 monitoring point to Earth. A 30 night ranking cannot include a number that does not exist yet.

So the ranking answers a narrower question: on which nights will the sky be darkest during the hours SWPC recommends, if the aurora shows? That part is known weeks ahead.

Using the ranking

Book or plan around the top of the list, then watch the live tools as the night comes. The chance tool reads your OVATION cell and US cloud, and the southern edge tool shows how far the oval reaches.

In summer at high latitudes the list can be all zeros, because the 22:00 to 02:00 window never gets civil-dark. The verdict says so rather than ranking empty nights.

Questions

What are the best nights to see the northern lights this month?
The nights with the most dark, moon-free time inside 10 PM to 2 AM local. The table ranks the next 30 for your location. Activity itself cannot be known that far ahead.
Why do so many nights score 4 hours?
Around the new moon, and whenever the moon is below the horizon all evening, the whole window is dark and moonless. Those nights tie on the score and are ordered by total moon-free dark time.
Why is every night zero in June?
At high latitudes the sun stays above -6 degrees through the window, so no minutes count. The tool reports that instead of ranking empty nights.
Is weather included?
No. Glow reads cloud from the NWS gridpoint forecast, which does not span 30 nights. For US points, the cloud tool covers tonight.
Can I rank more than 30 nights?
The moon planner shows any month as a calendar with the same moon-free hours for each night.