ToolComputedCited
Which nights this month are best, ignoring solar activity?
Answer
The best night in the next 30 at Mariehamn starts Thu Oct 15, with 4 h dark and moon-free inside 22:00 to 02:00. 12 of the 30 nights keep that whole window dark and moon-free.
This ranking covers darkness and the moon only. Solar activity cannot be forecast this far ahead: OVATION looks 30 to 90 minutes out. Check the live tools on the night.
| # | Night of | Moon-free in window | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thu Oct 15 | 4 h | 25% | 19:17 | 07:35 |
| 2 | Wed Oct 14 | 4 h | 17% | 19:20 | 07:33 |
| 3 | Tue Oct 13 | 4 h | 10% | 19:23 | 07:30 |
| 4 | Fri Oct 16 | 4 h | 33% | 19:14 | 07:37 |
| 5 | Mon Oct 12 | 4 h | 5% | 19:26 | 07:28 |
| 6 | Sun Oct 11 | 4 h | 2% | 19:28 | 07:26 |
| 7 | Sat Oct 10 | 4 h | 0% | 19:31 | 07:23 |
| 8 | Fri Oct 9 | 4 h | 1% | 19:34 | 07:21 |
| 9 | Thu Oct 8 | 4 h | 4% | 19:37 | 07:19 |
| 10 | Sat Oct 17 | 4 h | 43% | 19:12 | 07:40 |
| 11 | Wed Oct 7 | 4 h | 9% | 19:40 | 07:16 |
| 12 | Tue Oct 6 | 4 h | 16% | 19:43 | 07:14 |
| 13 | Mon Oct 5 | 3 h 36 min | 25% | 19:46 | 07:11 |
| 14 | Sun Oct 18 | 3 h 31 min | 52% | 19:09 | 07:42 |
| 15 | Mon Oct 19 | 1 h 58 min | 62% | 19:06 | 07:45 |
| 16 | Sun Oct 4 | 1 h 49 min | 35% | 19:49 | 07:09 |
| 17 | Tue Oct 20 | 27 min | 71% | 19:03 | 07:47 |
| 18 | Sat Oct 3 | 1 min | 47% | 19:52 | 07:07 |
| 19 | Wed Oct 21 | 0 min | 79% | 19:01 | 07:49 |
| 20 | Thu Oct 22 | 0 min | 87% | 18:58 | 07:52 |
| 21 | Sat Oct 31 | 0 min | 61% | 17:35 | 07:13 |
| 22 | Fri Oct 23 | 0 min | 93% | 18:55 | 07:54 |
| 23 | Fri Oct 30 | 0 min | 72% | 17:38 | 07:10 |
| 24 | Fri Oct 2 | 0 min | 58% | 19:55 | 07:04 |
| 25 | Sat Oct 24 | 0 min | 98% | 18:53 | 06:56 |
| 26 | Sun Oct 25 | 0 min | 100% | 17:50 | 06:59 |
| 27 | Mon Oct 26 | 0 min | 99% | 17:48 | 07:01 |
| 28 | Tue Oct 27 | 0 min | 96% | 17:45 | 07:03 |
| 29 | Wed Oct 28 | 0 min | 90% | 17:43 | 07:06 |
| 30 | Thu Oct 29 | 0 min | 81% | 17:40 | 07:08 |
Worked example
Tromsø over the same 30 nights: the top three are Mon Oct 19 (4 h), Sun Oct 18 (4 h), Sat Oct 17 (4 h). The minutes are civil night with the moon below the horizon between 22:00 and 02:00 Europe/Oslo time.
Ties are common when several nights keep the whole 4 hour window dark and moonless. Glow breaks them on total moon-free dark minutes across the night, then on date.
The ranking formula
Each night starts at local noon on its date. Glow samples the sun and moon every 5 minutes and counts the minutes between 22:00 and 02:00 local time when the sun is at or below -6 degrees and the moon's center is below the horizon. That count is the score, from 0 to 240.
The window comes from SWPC's viewing tips, which place the best aurora within an hour or two of midnight. Glow uses the window exactly as published, in local clock time.
When two nights tie, the one with more moon-free civil night across the whole night ranks higher. A remaining tie goes to the earlier date.
Why solar activity is not in the ranking
The aurora depends on the solar wind reaching Earth. SWPC's OVATION product forecasts 30 to 90 minutes ahead, the time the solar wind takes to travel from the L1 monitoring point to Earth. A 30 night ranking cannot include a number that does not exist yet.
So the ranking answers a narrower question: on which nights will the sky be darkest during the hours SWPC recommends, if the aurora shows? That part is known weeks ahead.
Using the ranking
Book or plan around the top of the list, then watch the live tools as the night comes. The chance tool reads your OVATION cell and US cloud, and the southern edge tool shows how far the oval reaches.
In summer at high latitudes the list can be all zeros, because the 22:00 to 02:00 window never gets civil-dark. The verdict says so rather than ranking empty nights.
Questions
- What are the best nights to see the northern lights this month?
- The nights with the most dark, moon-free time inside 10 PM to 2 AM local. The table ranks the next 30 for your location. Activity itself cannot be known that far ahead.
- Why do so many nights score 4 hours?
- Around the new moon, and whenever the moon is below the horizon all evening, the whole window is dark and moonless. Those nights tie on the score and are ordered by total moon-free dark time.
- Why is every night zero in June?
- At high latitudes the sun stays above -6 degrees through the window, so no minutes count. The tool reports that instead of ranking empty nights.
- Is weather included?
- No. Glow reads cloud from the NWS gridpoint forecast, which does not span 30 nights. For US points, the cloud tool covers tonight.
- Can I rank more than 30 nights?
- The moon planner shows any month as a calendar with the same moon-free hours for each night.