Can you see the southern lights in Mosgiel in October?

On dark, clear nights with enough activity. 31 of 31 nights at Mosgiel have civil darkness, and 0% of past October days reached Kp 9.

How dark is Mosgiel in October?

Mosgiel averages 9.5 hours of civil night a night in October 2026, from 10 h 17 min on the 1st to 8 h 37 min on the last night.

How cloudy is Mosgiel in October?

NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 climatology gives Mosgiel's 1 degree cell 72% mean cloud in October, against 71% for the whole year. It is an all-hours average, not a forecast.

What is the best night in October 2026 for aurora in Mosgiel?

By darkness and moon alone, Oct 2, with 4 h of moon-free darkness inside 10 PM to 2 AM at Mosgiel. Activity on that date will only be known hours ahead.

Is October or November better in Mosgiel?

By civil night times the clear share, October scores 2.7 hours at Mosgiel and November 2.0. October comes out ahead.

Mosgiel · October 2026

Southern lights in Mosgiel in October 2026

Answer

October gives Mosgiel 9.5 hours of civil night on the 15th, the 8th darkest of its 12 months, under 72% mean cloud. 0% of October days since 1996 reached Kp 9, enough for the oval edge to reach Mosgiel.

9.5 h

civil night, average night

SunCalc for -45.88, 170.35; NASA POWER; GFZ Kp

October against the rest of the year

1.9

2.6

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.5

4.6

3.7

3.4

2.7

2.0

1.7

October cloud at Mosgiel averages 72% in NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 record, close to its yearly mean of 71%. July is Mosgiel's clearest month at 67%. By civil night times clear sky, October scores 2.7 hours at Mosgiel, 8th of 12. Seattle, 12,280 km away, averages 68%, clearer by 4 points.

Civil night at Mosgiel starts October at 10 h 17 min and reaches 8 h 37 min by October 31, 1.7 hours shorter. SWPC's 10 PM to 2 AM window is fully dark on every night. True astronomical darkness, the sun 18 degrees down, lasts 6.9 hours on the 15th.

October night by night

October opens toward a new moon on Oct 11, with full moon on Oct 26, in Pacific/Auckland dates. Mosgiel gets 154 hours of civil night with the moon below the horizon across the month. The best of them for moon-free darkness inside 10 PM to 2 AM: Oct 2 (4 h), Oct 3 (4 h), Oct 4 (4 h).

1
73% lit
5.5 h
2
63% lit
6.6 h
3
51% lit
7.5 h
4
40% lit
8.1 h
5
29% lit
8.6 h
6
20% lit
9.0 h
7
12% lit
9.3 h
8
5% lit
9.6 h
9
2% lit
9.8 h
10
0% lit
9.8 h
11
1% lit
9.5 h
New
12
4% lit
8.3 h
13
8% lit
7.1 h
14
14% lit
6.0 h
15
22% lit
4.9 h
16
30% lit
4.0 h
17
39% lit
3.3 h
18
48% lit
2.6 h
19
58% lit
2.2 h
20
67% lit
1.8 h
21
76% lit
1.4 h
22
84% lit
1.1 h
23
91% lit
0.8 h
24
96% lit
0.4 h
25
99% lit
0.0 h
26
100% lit
0.0 h
Full
27
98% lit
1.1 h
28
93% lit
2.5 h
29
85% lit
3.7 h
30
76% lit
4.7 h
31
66% lit
5.4 h

Each cell is the night that starts on that date. Hours are civil-dark time with the moon below the horizon; the green rule scales with them. Green outline: new moon. Bone outline: full moon.

Activity in past Octobers

Mosgiel needs Kp 9 for the average oval edge to sit overhead. 2 of the 930 October days from 1996 to 2025 (0%) reached it in the GFZ Potsdam record, one of the three most active months for that level; storm days with Kp 5 or more made up 12%. Mosgiel sits at 49.4 degrees geomagnetic. The lowest NOAA storm level whose typical viewing latitude reaches it is G4 (Kp = 8, including a 9-). By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead only at Kp 9.

October across New Zealand

Coming from September (11.2 hours at Mosgiel), October loses darkness, and November brings shorter nights (7.9 hours on the 15th).

Darkness and moon, every night

Mosgiel, October 2026: each night from local noon to the next noon
Night	Civil	Astronomical	Moon-free dark	Moon-free, 10 PM to 2 AM	Moon lit
Thu Oct 1	10 h 17 min	7 h 51 min	5 h 27 min	3 h 46 min	73%
Fri Oct 2	10 h 14 min	7 h 48 min	6 h 34 min	4 h	63%
Sat Oct 3	10 h 11 min	7 h 44 min	7 h 27 min	4 h	51%
Sun Oct 4	10 h 7 min	7 h 40 min	8 h 7 min	4 h	40%
Mon Oct 5	10 h 4 min	7 h 36 min	8 h 36 min	4 h	29%
Tue Oct 6	10 h 1 min	7 h 32 min	8 h 59 min	4 h	20%
Wed Oct 7	9 h 57 min	7 h 28 min	9 h 18 min	4 h	12%
Thu Oct 8	9 h 54 min	7 h 24 min	9 h 35 min	4 h	5%
Fri Oct 9	9 h 50 min	7 h 20 min	9 h 50 min	4 h	2%
Sat Oct 10	9 h 47 min	7 h 16 min	9 h 47 min	4 h	0%
Sun Oct 11	9 h 44 min	7 h 12 min	9 h 31 min	4 h	1%
Mon Oct 12	9 h 40 min	7 h 8 min	8 h 18 min	4 h	4%
Tue Oct 13	9 h 37 min	7 h 3 min	7 h 6 min	2 h 53 min	8%
Wed Oct 14	9 h 34 min	6 h 59 min	5 h 57 min	1 h 46 min	14%
Thu Oct 15	9 h 30 min	6 h 55 min	4 h 54 min	45 min	22%
Fri Oct 16	9 h 27 min	6 h 51 min	4 h	0 min	30%
Sat Oct 17	9 h 24 min	6 h 47 min	3 h 16 min	0 min	39%
Sun Oct 18	9 h 20 min	6 h 42 min	2 h 39 min	0 min	48%
Mon Oct 19	9 h 17 min	6 h 38 min	2 h 10 min	0 min	58%
Tue Oct 20	9 h 14 min	6 h 34 min	1 h 45 min	0 min	67%
Wed Oct 21	9 h 10 min	6 h 29 min	1 h 24 min	0 min	76%
Thu Oct 22	9 h 7 min	6 h 25 min	1 h 4 min	0 min	84%
Fri Oct 23	9 h 4 min	6 h 21 min	45 min	0 min	91%
Sat Oct 24	9 h	6 h 16 min	24 min	0 min	96%
Sun Oct 25	8 h 57 min	6 h 12 min	1 min	0 min	99%
Mon Oct 26	8 h 54 min	6 h 7 min	0 min	0 min	100%
Tue Oct 27	8 h 50 min	6 h 3 min	1 h 9 min	6 min	98%
Wed Oct 28	8 h 47 min	5 h 58 min	2 h 30 min	1 h 29 min	93%
Thu Oct 29	8 h 44 min	5 h 54 min	3 h 43 min	2 h 43 min	85%
Fri Oct 30	8 h 40 min	5 h 49 min	4 h 42 min	3 h 44 min	76%
Sat Oct 31	8 h 37 min	5 h 44 min	5 h 26 min	4 h	66%

Moon lit: SunCalc illuminated fraction at the middle of the 10 PM to 2 AM window.

Questions

Can you see the southern lights in Mosgiel in October?: On dark, clear nights with enough activity. 31 of 31 nights at Mosgiel have civil darkness, and 0% of past October days reached Kp 9.
How dark is Mosgiel in October?: Mosgiel averages 9.5 hours of civil night a night in October 2026, from 10 h 17 min on the 1st to 8 h 37 min on the last night.
How cloudy is Mosgiel in October?: NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 climatology gives Mosgiel's 1 degree cell 72% mean cloud in October, against 71% for the whole year. It is an all-hours average, not a forecast.
What is the best night in October 2026 for aurora in Mosgiel?: By darkness and moon alone, Oct 2, with 4 h of moon-free darkness inside 10 PM to 2 AM at Mosgiel. Activity on that date will only be known hours ahead.
Is October or November better in Mosgiel?: By civil night times the clear share, October scores 2.7 hours at Mosgiel and November 2.0. October comes out ahead.

Sources and verification

SunCalchttps://github.com/mourner/suncalc
NASA POWER climatologyhttps://power.larc.nasa.gov/docs/services/api/temporal/climatology/
GFZ Potsdam Kp indexhttps://kp.gfz.de/en/data
NOAA SWPC, Tips on viewing the aurorahttps://www.spaceweather.gov/content/tips-viewing-aurora

Quoted figures last checked against their sources on 2026-09-30; next review 2026-12-31. Computed figures come from SunCalc and the IGRF-14 dipole as described in the methodology. Every quote is listed in the sources ledger.