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Checking the NOAA OVATION feed

Ontario, Canada

Northern lights in Valley East

Answer

Valley East's OVATION cell reads 0% for 13:20 UTC. It is not civil-dark yet. The next dusk is listed below. OVATION is a model of the next 30 to 90 minutes, not a sighting.
0%
OVATION cell 47°N, 81°W
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast, observed 11:49 UTC

Tonight

Waiting on darkness

It is not civil-dark yet. The next dusk is listed below.

OVATION cell
0%
OVATION 30 to 90 minute forecast
Cell 47°N, 81°W
Observed 11:49 UTC, forecast 13:20 UTC, 91 min lead
Darkness
Not dark yet
Civil dusk 19:31, civil dawn 06:55
SunCalc at 46.6450, -80.9973
Clock times in America/Toronto
Cloud
n/a
Not used (outside the US): NWS covers US coordinates only, and Glow uses no substitute feed.
api.weather.gov gridpoints
CivilNauticalAstronomicalMoon up while dark10 PM to 2 AM

Storm level needed

Valley East sits at 46.65N 81.00W in Ontario, Canada. The IGRF-14 centered dipole puts Valley East at 55.7 degrees geomagnetic latitude, 9.1 degrees closer to the magnetic pole than its map latitude suggests. Valley East sits at 55.7 degrees geomagnetic. By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead at Kp 6, and aurora is usually visible on the northern horizon at G1 (Kp 5) or less.

"aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)"

NOAA SWPC, G1 Minor, Kp = 5

The nearest other Glow towns are Greater Sudbury (17 km), North Bay (123 km), Timmins (204 km). Greater Sudbury sits 0.2 degrees lower on the dipole and needs the same Kp.

Approximate: SWPC calls its Kp to latitude rule an average, and a centered dipole can differ by a degree from fuller field models. How the storm level is matched

The year in darkness

Civil twilightNautical twilightAstronomical nightMoon up in darkness10 PM to 2 AM, SWPC best windowToday

Every night of 2026 at Valley East has some civil darkness; the shortest month sample still has 6.7 hours. Every evening of the year at Valley East clears Glow's dark-season bar of 4 hours of civil night between 18:00 and 06:00. Valley East's longest night of the year, Dec 16, has 14 h 10 min of civil night.

Solar midnight at Valley East, when the sun is lowest, falls at 00:19 on local clocks on December 15 and 01:24 on June 15. That is 19 min after midnight in December and 1 h 24 min after midnight in June, the gap set by daylight saving and the equation of time. So at Valley East the darkest hour sits near the middle of SWPC's 10 PM to 2 AM window in winter.

Month by month

Civil night on the 15th, mean cloud amount, and civil night times the clear share (the best month is marked)
MonthNightCivilCloudClear dark
Jan13.8 h70%4.1 h
Feb12.5 h66%4.3 h
Mar11.0 h60%4.4 hbest
Apr9.2 h64%3.3 h
May7.6 h64%2.7 h
Jun6.7 h60%2.7 h
Jul7.2 h54%3.3 h
Aug8.6 h56%3.8 h
Sep10.3 h58%4.4 h
Oct12.0 h70%3.6 h
Nov13.4 h77%3.1 h
Dec14.2 h76%3.4 h

By the 15th-of-the-month sample, December is the darkest month at Valley East with 14.2 hours of civil night and June the lightest at 6.7. Across the year Valley East gets 3,847 hours of civil night. Astronomical night at Valley East, the sun 18 degrees or more below the horizon, lasts 11.7 hours on December 15.

NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology puts mean cloud amount for the 1 degree cell around Valley East at 65% across the year, from 54% in July to 77% in November. In the months with at least 4 hours of civil night Valley East averages 65%, against a median of 67% for Glow towns in Canada.

Multiplying civil night by the clear share of the sky gives March the best score, 4.4 hours, ahead of September at 4.4. Valley East's equinox months score 4.4 in March and 4.4 in September, the weeks SWPC links with larger storms.

Kp history

From 1996 to 2025, the GFZ Potsdam record shows a 3-hour Kp of 6 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge over Valley East, on 3% of days. At Valley East's level the share runs from 1% in December to 5% in October, while storm days with Kp 5 or more made up 10%.

Share of UTC days in each calendar month whose highest 3-hour Kp reached Kp 6. Kp history by year

Moon, next 30 nights

Over the 30 nights from Oct 1, the new moon falls on Oct 10 and the full moon on Oct 26, in America/Toronto dates. 15 of the 30 nights at Valley East have at least 2 moon-free dark hours inside 10 PM to 2 AM, and Oct 5 has the most at 4 h. Tonight Valley East has 11 h 15 min of civil night, 2 h 3 min of it with the moon down.

  1. 1

    66% lit

    2.0 h

  2. 2

    55% lit

    3.2 h

  3. 3

    43% lit

    4.5 h

  4. 4

    32% lit

    5.8 h

  5. 5

    22% lit

    7.2 h

  6. 6

    14% lit

    8.5 h

  7. 7

    7% lit

    9.8 h

  8. 8

    3% lit

    11.1 h

  9. 9

    0% lit

    11.7 h

  10. 10

    0% lit

    11.7 h

  11. 11

    3% lit

    11.8 h

  12. 12

    7% lit

    11.8 h

  13. 13

    12% lit

    11.5 h

  14. 14

    19% lit

    10.9 h

  15. 15

    27% lit

    10.2 h

  16. 16

    36% lit

    9.3 h

  17. 17

    45% lit

    8.3 h

  18. 18

    55% lit

    7.2 h

  19. 19

    64% lit

    6.0 h

  20. 20

    73% lit

    4.9 h

  21. 21

    82% lit

    3.7 h

  22. 22

    89% lit

    2.5 h

  23. 23

    95% lit

    1.3 h

  24. 24

    99% lit

    0.1 h

  25. 25

    100% lit

    0.0 h

  26. 26

    98% lit

    0.0 h

  27. 27

    94% lit

    0.0 h

  28. 28

    88% lit

    0.8 h

  29. 29

    79% lit

    1.8 h

  30. 30

    69% lit

    3.0 h

Each cell is the night that starts on that date. Hours are civil-dark time with the moon below the horizon; the green rule scales with them. Green outline: new moon. Bone outline: full moon.

Within Canada

Among the 37 Glow towns in Ontario, Valley East ranks 4th by dipole latitude against a regional median of 53.0 degrees; Kenora sits highest at 58.2. Among the 130 Glow towns in Canada, Valley East ranks 58th by dipole latitude against a national median of 55.3 degrees; Yellowknife sits highest at 68.5. On December 15 Valley East gets 14.2 hours of civil night, 63rd longest of 130 in Canada, where the median is 14.2.

Questions

Can you see the northern lights in Valley East?
Valley East sits at 55.7 degrees geomagnetic. By SWPC's rule the average oval edge is overhead at Kp 6, and aurora is usually visible on the northern horizon at G1 (Kp 5) or less. Clear, dark sky over Valley East still decides it.
When is it dark enough in Valley East?
Every night at Valley East has civil darkness. Tonight has 11 h 15 min, and December 15 has 14.2 hours.
What is the best month for aurora in Valley East?
March, by civil night at Valley East times the clear share of the sky from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 average.
How cloudy is Valley East in the dark months?
About 65% mean cloud amount over Valley East in the months with at least 4 hours of civil night, from NASA POWER's 2001 to 2020 all-hours climatology.
How often is activity high enough for Valley East?
A 3-hour Kp of 6 or more, the level that puts the average oval edge overhead, occurred on 3% of days from 1996 to 2025 in the GFZ Potsdam record.